the us dollar-peso exchange rate as of today is now down to PhP 42.874 (according to http://www.philnews.com/forex.htm). since morning, i’m trying to rock my brain to remember some economics lessons way back in highschool/college to find some explanation on how the strong peso/weakening dollar rate would affect our economy, national economy. but unfortunately, and in shame, i got nothing. way back then, i really do not care about inflation/deflation, all i wanted was to finish and pass those subjects.
they say, on a larger scale, the stronger the peso the better for our economy. but in my own little corner of the philippines, it just does not sound any better. both mark and i are sort of dollar earner (but still based on a local wage rate so we’re still average slave earners) when i started 1 year ago, i think the exchange rate at that time is P52 sthing now it’s down to P42 sthing, a difference of P10. so, one way or another, we’re affected with the peso-dollar exchange moodswings.
1. one concern is to convert or not to convert the dollar savings, your $500 savings for now is like P20t+ when converted today. but then looking at the trend of peso/dollar exchange rate, come christmas time with the strong remitances from our pinoy expats (they say expat is now the new label), the exchange rate might go down as low as P35 (though, they say the farthest it can go down is P40) so if you do not convert now, your $500 might be just $17,500. you just lose around P3t in a month’s time. so just imagine if you have some $5T stashed in a bank, yay, that’s a lot to lose! but then we really do not know what will happen day to day. tomorrow, it might just go up to P50=$1 again. hay, OA pa sa babaye nga gi PMS, unpredictable. with this thought, part of you wants to hold on to your dollar, and part of you wants to let go already. so how about you, have you started converting your $$$$ there?
so for those expats, it might be best to send your christmas cash gifts now that it has bigger value than later (am i right to say this ba?). or, be patient and wait for it to go up which is goodluck. heheheh
2. though mark’s working for a european client, so they paid in euro. but then, euro wired to philippines is converted to US dollar (please correct me in here though, that’s just how i understand it) so the converted US dollar payment received months ago no longer has the same value as of today. unless, they physically send the euro money here by hand, and convert it in the black market which is i think sounds dangerous. so, i guess pounds/yen/dinar/and whatever currency earning people are still affected.
3. the only way i/my household and the rest of the philippains is positively benefited by the stronger peso is when prices of products also decreased (which they say is the positive effect of a stronger peso. note: too many ‘positive’ word) bigger dollar exchange rate means i have a bigger buying power. smaller dollar exchange rate means lesser buying power unless prices also go down or at least stay put which i still have to check. my benchmark before if prices go up or down is the Swift corned beef but lately i no longer buy it so i lost track if its price changes. how about you, have you observed the prices going down? so in a way, the super metro mandaue, country mall, mercury drug, and sari2x stores where i’m a suki will be affected because they can no longer milk as much from me. though, in the whole wide universe, i’m only 1 buyer compared to their millions of other shoppers, so my dilemma will not dent them a bit. and, i wish it will not — because if businessmen will be negatively affected so the employees will be.
on another bigger(?) scenario, how about the BPOs, exporters, importers, and made in china? heheheh
this makes my brain ached, too much thinking in there. i’m too lazy to google/research for this topic, so please, brainy multipliers, enlighten me. no ‘world peace’ answers please. i need some the-sun-is-the-center-of-the-solar-system kind of answers! =)